Red-Clad Crowds Fill Copacabana as Lula Seeks Historic Comeback Before Sunday Runoff

Tens of thousands of supporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva packed Rio de Janeiro's Copacabana beach on Saturday, hoping to give the leftwing leader momentum on the final day before a presidential runoff against far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro.

Close to 159 million Brazilians are eligible to vote on Sunday. The two candidates are tied in the polls after Bolsonaro won the first round on 4 October with 47% to Lula's 45%. Since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate who lost the first round has gone on to win the runoff, so a Lula victory would be unprecedented.

Beneath a strong sun, crowds dressed in red filled the 2.5-mile beach in a carnival-like procession. Activists unfurled a huge yellow and green banner reading "WE ARE GOING TO TURN THIS AROUND!" Truck driver Josias Silva, 61, carried a homemade sign saying "Lula re-elected. Tomorrow will be a new day." He said the large street protests, many led by students, show that "the people have woken up," and predicted Lula would win more than 60% of the vote. Polls point to a far narrower contest.

Most analysts see Bolsonaro as the slight favourite. His father, Jair Bolsonaro, was president from 2019 to 2022, and the son has pitched himself as someone who will confront violent crime with an iron fist. In recent days, however, Lula appears to have regained the initiative and climbed in the polls amid several scandals involving his opponent. Last week, the magazine Piauí claimed that during the height of the 2020 coronavirus outbreak, Flávio Bolsonaro attended a boat party with sex workers and vaccine lobbyists seeking a deal with his father's government.

For many marchers the stakes go beyond ordinary politics. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula, and some democrats fear he could be freed or even return to government if his son wins. Brazilian press reports suggest several of his fellow plotters, now jailed or in exile, could be given senior military and police posts. Restaurateur Marta Moraes, 59, said her opposition was to "Bolsonarismo" rather than the right as a whole, and said she lost four relatives because of Jair Bolsonaro's neglect during the Covid pandemic.

Many in the crowd belonged to "Lula's Army," a WhatsApp group of 10 million members formed after the first round. Retired teacher Isabella Gaze, 64, said: "This isn't a normal election." DJ and activist Cammy Marinho, 49, said she had spent a fortnight trying to persuade Bolsonaro voters and first-round abstainers to switch sides. Fourteen-year-old Heitor Lopes da Silva travelled from Duque de Caxias in his wheelchair with a placard of support for the president.

Bolsonaro's backers also took to the streets. In Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, thousands gathered in the Praça da Liberdade wearing Brazil's yellow football jersey and waving Brazilian flags, many alongside US flags. The state has the country's second-largest electorate and is a key bellwether: no candidate has won the presidency without carrying it. Bolsonaro led there by just under 5% in the first round.

Supporters there defended his security message. Shooting club owner Antonio Carlos Costa Jr, 59, said Jair Bolsonaro gave citizens the right to defend themselves and his son would do the same. Security experts agree that Jair Bolsonaro's loosening of gun laws ended up diverting many firearms to criminal gangs, while Lula has tightened the rules again. Lula's supporters doubt that Bolsonaro, who has well-documented ties to members of Rio's paramilitary militias, could curb crime. Architect Erika Cavalcante, 43, carried a sign reading "Don't let the mobsters win."